There’s an interesting mix of companies on deck next week, including chip designer ARM Holdings (ARM), which reports after-hours Wednesday. Given its shares have gained more than 90% this year, investors will be scrutinising the firm’s Q4/FY26 earnings closely, and more importantly, comments about how it fits into the wider AI ecosphere.
Spirits group Diageo (DGE) also reports on Wednesday, and analysts will be waiting to hear what ‘Drastic Dave’ Lewis has to say. The new CEO has a reputation for taking tough decisions to keep his charge on the straight and narrow.
Before either of those, global banking group HSBC (HSBA) takes the stage right after the bank holiday with its FY results on Tuesday. As the biggest of the UK ‘Big Four’ (and best performer this year), it has a reputation to uphold.
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ARM Holdings (ARM)
Experienced UK investors will remember Arm from LSE days gone by, and heading into earnings next week should focus less on the headline numbers and more on what they signal about the durability of the AI trade.
First, near-term execution matters. Markets will watch whether revenue hits wide-ranging guidance of $1.16 billion to $1.47 billion (EPS $0.47-$0.58) and whether full-year outlooks are raised or merely maintained. With the stock trading at very high multiples (12-month rolling PE 99, according to Stockpedia), even small misses or conservative guidance could trigger a big sell-off.
Second, the key structural drivers are datacentre and AI exposure (no shock there – ed), and Arm’s royalty growth is increasingly tied to cloud and AI workloads, where demand for power-efficient CPUs is rising. Just ask Intel (INTC).
Data-centre royalties have already been growing far faster than legacy smartphone revenues, reinforcing the company’s pivot toward AI infrastructure. What we do know, after this week’s run of hyperscaler capex commitments, is there’s no shortage of cash being thrown around on expansion, offering optimism for Arm.
Lastly, Arm’s move ‘beyond IP’ into designing its own AI chips is crucial. This expands its role in the AI stack but raises execution risk and potential conflicts with customers.
In short, the earnings call is less about last quarter and more about whether Arm can remain central to the AI boom—or if expectations have run ahead of reality.
Arm Q4 2026 consensus
| Revenue ($bn) | EPS ($) | Q4 2025 revenue ($bn) | Q4 2025 EPS ($) |
| 1.16-1.47 | 0.47-0.58 | 1.24 | 0.55 |
Source: Investing.com, Zacks
Diageo (DGE)
Glass half-full investors will be hoping for signs of trading stabilisation when unloved alcoholic drinks giant Diageo (DGE) delivers its Q3 trading statement next week (6 May). Analysts are less optimistic, with consensus calling for a 2.3% drop in quarterly organic sales.
Headwinds facing the world’s biggest spirits company include tariffs, changing drinking habits, the squeeze on disposable incomes and weak demand in North America. Given these challenges, new CEO Dave Lewis cut the first half-dividend in February in order to give Diageo greater financial flexibility.
Diageo also lowered its FY26 outlook, and this was before the Middle East war further dampened consumer sentiment. The Don Julio-to-Captain Morgan maker’s disappointing H1 revenue reflected weaker demand in China and North America.
Organic sales slipped 2.8% lower in what Lewis dubbed a ‘mixed’ performance. When Diageo reports, analysts will be delving deep into the performances of Scotch, which returned to growth in H1, and the popular Guinness brand.
Any progress made in paying down Diageo’s chunky net debt pile would be applauded by the market. Diageo’s shares were boosted this week after Donald Trump said he will remove tariffs on whisky following a chat with King Charles and Queen Camilla during their US visit.
Diageo cuts guidance and slashes dividend
Diageo Q3 forecasts
| Consensus | Minimum | Maximum | |
| Q3 organic growth (%) | -2.3 | -4.2 | 0.5 |
| Reported net sales ($m) | 4,265 | 4,147 | 4,391 |
Source: Diageo, consensus estimates
HSBC (HSBA)
Asia-focused HSBC (HSBA) has been the best-perfoming of the Big Four UK banks by a country mile this year. That’s no coincidence, as Asia is still seen growing whereas the outlook for the UK is clouded due to high energy prices.
HSBC Q1 forecasts
| Q1 2026e | Q1 2025 | FY 2026e | |
| Revenue ($m) | 18,682 | 17,649 | 73,869 |
| Operating costs ($m) | 8,426 | 7,489 | 35,100 |
| Pre-tax profit ($m) | 9,588 | 9,484 | 36,693 |
| EPS ($) | 0.41 | 0.39 | 1.61 |
| RoTE (%) | 18.6 | 17.9 | 17.5 |
Source: HSBC consensus estimates
The bank isn’t immune to what’s happening in the Middle East, however, as CEO Georges Elherdery admitted at a conference in Asia recently. ‘We’re concerned not just with what’s happening but also with how long this will take. Unfortunately, some of these uncertainties have initially started to weigh on general confidence,’ commented Elhedery.
HSBC has direct exposure to the Middle East through its stake in Saudi Awwal Bank, plus the region accounts for around 4% of profits. Therefore, while analysts have penciled in a decent gain in revenue, earnings may be crimped by costs and provisions.
HSBC rallies despite drop in earnings, 25 Feb 2026
