Recruitment has been pretty much one of the worst-performing areas of the UK market for the last decade. Most stocks were sliding well before the pandemic, which ironically gave them a lift, and most have hit multi-year lows in 2026.
However, recent trading updates from the likes of Hays (LON:HAS), Pagegroup (LON:PAGE) and Robert Walters (LON:RWA) suggest things are getting less bad. That’s not to say things are good, just that hiring trends aren’t quite as negative as they were previously.
Recruitment stock shares versus all time highs
| ATH | Date | Price today | Change | |
| Hays | 505p | Nov 1999 | 66p | -87% |
| Pagegroup | 690p | Oct 2021 | 195p | -72% |
| Robert Walters | 794p | Jan 2022 | 120p | -85% |
| Staffline | 1500p | Oct 2015 | 45p | -97% |
| SThree | 610p | Oct 2021 | 260p | -57% |
Source: Stockopedia
This has set the stage for a sharp move upward move in share prices, but is it for real? Have we actually hit the bottom for the recruitment market, and is it time to buy shares in the companies themselves?
Why have share prices rallied?
It’s worth repeating the old adage that the stock market is a discounting mechanism, meaning it always looks forward. Therefore, even if we haven’t hit the bottom in the recruitment market, it doesn’t matter. Investors are looking forward to a point where we have hit the bottom, and are buying in advance.
What matters is not so much the rate of change in hiring and fee income, but the rate of change of the rate of change. This is known as the second derivative, and a slowdown in the slowdown is a good thing. It means things are getting less bad, and the quicker they get less bad the quicker the trend turns positive.
Trend in LFL net fee income over last four quarters
| -4Q | -3Q | -2Q | -1Q | |
| Hays | -8% | -10% | -8% | -5% |
| Pagegroup | -6.7% | -4.6% | -4.9% | -0.2% |
| Robert Walters | -13% | -14% | -2% | -4% |
| Staffline* | +14.1% | +13.3% | ||
| SThree | -12% | -8% | -8% | -6% |
Source: Company accounts
Notes: *Staffline half-year results (2H25, 1H26)
Generally speaking, trends in hiring tend to move in line with overall economic growth and growth indicators. Therefore, measures like GDP, and sentiment indicators like PMIs (purchasing managers’ indices) are important for the growth outlook.
At present, generally speaking, the companies aren’t seeing much of an improvement, but that hasn’t disuaded investors. Share prices have jumped sharply in the last month on the hope/belief the hiring market has bottomed.
Recruitment stocks’ performance in last month
| Share price -1m | Share price today | Change | |
| Hays | 33.5p | 66p | +97% |
| Pagegroup | 108p | 195p | +80% |
| Robert Walters | 85p | 120p | +41% |
| Staffline | 38.6p | 45 | +17% |
| SThree | 159p | 260p | +64% |
Source: Stockopedia
What did the companies say?
For the quarter to June, Hays said temp and contracting volumes (65% of fees) were ‘stable’ and in line with expectations. The permanent market (35% of fees) was ‘challenging overall’ and softened slightly during the quarter.
Notably, in June the company sold its operations in six countries for just £4 million. It also announced it was exploring selling its operations in seven more countries including Greater China. In total these 13 countries delivered £85 million in net fee income in FY26, or just under 10% of the estimated total.
The firm said it had ‘limited forward visibility’ and expected near-term market conditions to remain ‘challenging’. As before, temp and contract fees are expected to be more resilient than permanent fees.
Uncertainty persists
Pagegroup described its latest quarter as ‘good despite a high degree of uncertainty’. It also said it had seen ‘signs of normalisation in trading’ in a number of regions and around half its markets were growing again.
The firm singled out the Americas and Asia Pacific as delivering ‘continued growt’, with net fee income up 7.2% and 9.4% respectively. France, Northern Europe and the UK were described as ‘challenging but stable’, in contrast.
Unlike Hays, most of Pagegroup’s fees (around 73%) come from permanent placements while temporary roles make up a minority (around 27%). CEO Nicholas Kirk was plaeasesd with the improvement but admitted there was still ‘a high degree of uncertainty’ in the outlook.
Robert Walters, which like Pagegroup is more weighted towards permant than temporary fees (66% against 33%), also cited uncertainty. However, it noted fee income had turned positive in June and said it started the new quarter ‘with good trading momentum’.
CEO Toby Fowlston commented: ‘The sustained growth we are seeing in some of our largest markets reflects two important themes. Firstly, the drivers of the downturn in hiring markets following the post-pandemic surge remain largely cyclical. Secondly, our suite of solutions leaves us increasingly well-placed to take market share as the landscape continues to evolve.’
Smaller specialists
In its update for H1 to June, specialist STEM recruiter SThree (LON:STEM) flagged a ‘continued improvement’ driven by growth in Japan and the USA. However, two of its largest markets, Germany and the Netherlands, saw fees decline by 14% and 24% respectively.
Contract net fees, which make up 85% of the group total, were down 8% over the half. Despite that, new business was stable year-on-year and improved in Q2 while contract extensions were ‘resilient’.
Permanent net fees, representing 15% of the total, were down just 5% with the rate of decline helped by better demand in Japan. By specialty, engineering fees were stable but life sciences declined 8% and technology declined 14% during the half.
The firm said it was ‘cautiously optimistic’ thanks to positive forward indicators like new business activity. It also flagged growth in the contractor order book and continued momentum in the USA and Japan.
Minnow Staffline (LON:STAF) is the big outlier among the recruiters as it hasn’t seen a slowdown in activity, at least not recently. The firm provides contract staff to the food manufacturing, supermarket, logistics, industrial and even local government sectors.
For H1 to June, the firm posted a 13.3% increase in net fee income, while June itself saw a 16% increase. Helped by hot weather and the World Cup, hours worked by contract staff in food preparation and logistics in particular soared.
If anything, growth in H1 understates the firm’s FY potential as it excluded two big factors. First, the firm signed a deal with the UK’s largest distribution firm, Culina, which will only start contributing in H2. Second, existing logistics customer GXO has just received regulatory approval for its Wincanton purchase, so Staffline should see an uptick in demand.
