Gold will likely hit $6,000 an ounce in 2026 and could see $10,000 by the end of the decade, according to the bold prediction by one analyst.
Yardeni Research raised its gold outlook, arguing that the sharp rally across precious metals reflects macro and policy concerns rather than a rebound in global economic activity.
Gold prices are up around 70% year to date, lagging gains in silver, platinum, and palladium, which Yardeni says weakens the case that industrial demand is driving the move. Prices of basic metals tied more closely to manufacturing have risen far less, reinforcing that view.
For example, copper prices have risen around 38% during 2025 to date.
$2,000 breakthrough
Gold has led the rally since breaking above $2,000 an ounce in early 2024. At the time, Yardeni turned bullish on the bullion, pointing to rising central bank purchases following the freezing of Russia’s international reserves after the invasion of Ukraine.
But central banks do not buy silver, platinum, or palladium, yet those metals have also surged to record levels, the market research firm emphasised.
As such, Yardeni argues that the current precious metals prices may be signalling investor unease about an ‘excessively stimulative combination of monetary and fiscal policies’ in the US next year.
Even if the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts early in 2026, it remains committed to purchasing roughly $40 billion a month in Treasury bills through April, according to a recent press release by Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Supportive government buzz
On the fiscal side, Yardeni highlights comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on potential tax refunds of $1,000 to $2,000 per household in the 2026 filing season, alongside discussion of possible tariff dividend checks, developments that could widen the federal deficit and pressure bond yields.
Against that backdrop, Yardeni raised its year-end 2026 gold target to $6,000 an ounce after prices climbed above $4,500, up from prior projections of $4,000 by end-2025 and $5,000 by end-2026.
It reiterated its longer-term view that gold could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade, noting that while gold and the S&P 500 often move inversely in the short term, they have followed a similar upward trend over longer horizons.
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