Shares in trading platform IG Group (LON:!GG) crashed 25% to a year-low in early trading after it cut its FY26 revenue guidance. This is the fintech firm’s second disappointing update in recent months after the shares tumbled on the H1 results.
Cut to FY revenue guidance
For the three months to September, IG expects total revenue to be in the region of £240 million. That represents a drop of 14% on the same period last year, with the firm blaming lower OTC revenue retention.
As a result, the group now expects FY26 revenue to grow by mid-single digits instead of low double-digits. The current company-compiled consensus puts FY26 revenue at £1.26 billion, up 12.2% on FY25. This is after the firm raised its FY growth guidance in May to between 10% and 15%.
Estimates for IG Group
| FY26 Est | FY27 Est | FY28 Est | |
| Total revenue (£m) | 1,260 | 1,902 | 2,111 |
| EBITDA (£m) | 573 | 707 | 800 |
| EPS (p) | 129 | 145 | 168 |
Source: IG Group
The firm said Q3 revenue retention within OTC derivatives was around 70%, below the 80% average since it introduced market-making ‘optimization’ measures in H2 2025. Actual OTC net trading revenue in Q3 was £155 million, down 18% year-on-year. However, the company maintains these measures will ‘structurally increase OTC revenue retention’ over the medium term.
While other platforms have grown their B2B (business-to-business) offering, most of IG’s customer base is still private investors. That means it’s more exposed to the ebb and flow of confidence and peoples’ willingness to bet on markets.
The one thing which stands out to us in today’s statement is the lack of any clear profit guidance. All the firm says is the EBITDA margin will be in the ‘low 40s per cent range’ excluding one-off costs.
That compares with 47% in FY25 and almost 50% in FY24, so potentially we’re looking at a 20% drop in two years. Using the new revenue guidance, and assuming say a 42% margin, that puts FY26 EBITDA sub-£500 million.
Analysts on the other hand are predicting £573 million of EBITDA this year and a whopping £707 million next year. On that basis, it’s hardly surprising the shares have been smacked over 20%.
