This week sees the release of Q4 results from major US banks, so in this article we walk you through what to expect.
Analysts have predicted 13% growth in earnings for S&P 500 in 2025, with bank earnings seen up 7% in Q4.
However, following Donald Trump’s attack on credit card fees the focus will be on the outlook as much as earnings.
JPMORGAN CHASE IN POLE POSITION
Reporting begins on Tuesday 13 January with JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the world’s biggest bank capitalised at almost $900 billion.
The consensus forecast for Q4 EPS (earnings per share) is $5.01 against $4.81 a year earlier according to Zacks Research.
That implies 4% just growth, but JPM typically beats forecasts by 5% to 10% so a range of $5.20 to $5.30 would be more realistic.
FY 2025 EPS are seen at $20.07, up 6% on 2024, so again we expect the bank to beat forecasts.
The consensus for FY 2026 EPS is $20.96, but we see analysts raising assuming the bank does beat in Q4.
Investors will look closely at chief executive Jamie Dimon’s comments on the 2026 outlook and especially credit card charges.
In the Q3 results, Dimon said the US economy remained ‘resilient’ despite signs of a softening, particularly in job growth.
However, he also alluded to ‘a heightened degree of uncertainty’ due to geopolitics, tariffs and trade uncertainty.
BANK OF AMERICA A DISTANT SECOND
Bank of America (BAC) is second in the global rankings with a market cap of around $410 billion, less than half that of JPM.
The consensus for Q4 EPS, due on Wednesday 14 January, is $0.95 against $0.82 a year earlier according to Zacks.
That implies around 16% growth, but the bank usually beats by 5c to 10c so a range of $1.00 to $1.05 would seem realistic.
FY 2025 EPS are seen at $3.83, up 19% on 2024, so we could see a small beat.
The consensus for FY 2026 EPS is $4.34, so assuming FY25 is a beat we can see analysts raising the bar by another 10c or so.
Given the bank is a big credit card issuer, chief finance officer Alastair Borthwick is bound to be quizzed on the level of charges.
WALL STREET MAY PRESENT MIXED RESULTS
Big broking firms Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are also due to report their Q4 earnings on Thursday 15 January.
With US stocks in general only making modest gains in the final quarter, results for market-related businesses may be variable.
Analysts expect Goldman Sachs to post EPS of $11.69, down from $11.95 a year earlier, although given recent form we would expect it to beat.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is seen posting Q4 EPS of $2.36 against $1.65 a year earlier and FY 2025 EPS of $9.92, up almost 25% on 2024.
BLACKROCK STILL RAKING IT IN
Finally, the world’s largest investment management group BlackRock (BLK) also reports on Thursday.
The group manages over $11.5 trillion of assets, much of it passively through systematic strategies and ETFs which continue to experience inflows.
In Q3, the company enjoyed over $200 billion of net inflows thanks to a record quarter for its iShares ETF business.
For Q4, analysts are forecasting EPS of $12.41 against 11.93 a year ago, and FY 2025 earnings up 12.7% from $42.01 to $47.37 per share.
Consensus forecasts
| Company | Q4 EPS Est | Change YoY | 2026 EPS Est |
| JPMorgan Chase | $5.01 | 4% | $20.96 |
| Bank of America | $0.95 | 16% | $4.34 |
| Goldman Sachs | $11.69 | -2% | $55.36 |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.36 | 43% | $10.51 |
| BlackRock | $12.41 | 4% | $53.29 |
Source: Zacks Investment Research, data correct as of 11 January 2026
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