Gold prices vaulted to fresh record highs on Monday, extending last week’s sharp rally. Investors are seeking refuge in the precious metal amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainty over US trade policy. Gold spot prices rallied to an all-time high of over $5,100 an ounce by 9.30am GMT, while US gold futures advanced by around 2.5% to a record $5,134/oz.
The latest surge builds on a powerful move last week, when gold gained more than 8% and repeatedly breached previous historic peaks. Prices are now up almost 17% year-to-date, underpinned by heightened geopolitical risk, expectations of looser US monetary policy later in 2026, and sustained buying by central banks.
Other precious metals also rallied strongly. Silver jumped around 6% to a record $110/oz, while platinum climbed 4% to a new high of $2,910/oz.
Geopolitical tensions and trade risks drive demand
A key catalyst for gold’s rise this month has been escalating friction between the US and NATO allies over Greenland, which has unsettled financial markets and revived demand for safe-haven assets.
President Donald Trump’s remarks on US strategic interests in the Arctic region have strained transatlantic relations, fuelling concerns over broader diplomatic and economic repercussions.
Trade tensions have added to the market’s unease. Over the weekend, Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Canadian goods should Ottawa proceed with a trade agreement with China. In a post on his social media platform, Trump warned that Canada could become a ‘drop-off port’ for Chinese exports destined for the US. He also cautioned that Beijing would ‘eat Canada alive’ if such a deal were finalised.
The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and renewed trade frictions has reinforced gold’s appeal as a store of value during periods of heightened risk.
Focus turns to Federal Reserve
Gold has also been supported by expectations surrounding US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to conclude its policy meeting on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged.
While a pause is largely priced in, investors are expected to scrutinise the Fed’s statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell. They’ll be scanning for signals on the timing and scale of potential rate cuts later in the year. Lower interest rates typically bolster gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
‘Both the data and Chair Powell’s robust defence of central bank independence indicate little prospect of a 28 January Fed rate cut’, analysts at ING said in a note. ‘The focus will be on President Trump’s imminent nomination for the new Fed chair, upcoming economic data, and whether that individual can steer the committee toward further cuts.’
With geopolitical tensions simmering and policy uncertainty lingering, analysts said gold’s momentum could remain supported in the near term, and beyond.
Gold could hit $10,000
Yardeni Research has been calling for a melt-up in gold since early last year, a move that has now expanded well beyond bullion. ‘It has turned into a melt-up in the prices of all precious metals, many base metals, and rare earth minerals’, Yardeni wrote in a note.
‘This is all happening because rising geopolitical tensions are driving a military arms race, and defence companies need metals to increase their output; their stock prices are soaring as well’, it added.
Source: Yardeni Research
Against that backdrop, Yardeni maintained its bullish long-term outlook for gold. ‘We are still targeting $6,000 by the end of this year and $10,000 by the end of 2029’, the firm said.
Low-cost ways to invest
Investors have plenty of options when it comes to backing gold, depending on whether you want physical ownership, price exposure, or income-generating assets linked to gold. Here are the main routes, from simple to more sophisticated:
Physical gold
Best for: Long-term holders, crisis hedgers
- Gold bars (1g to 1kg)
- Gold coins (e.g. Britannia, Krugerrand, Maple Leaf)
Pros:
✔ Tangible asset
✔ No counterparty risk
✔ Often CGT-free in the UK for legal-tender coins
Cons:
✘ Storage & insurance costs
✘ Dealer premiums
✘ Less liquid than paper gold
Gold ETFs / ETCs
Best for: Easy, liquid exposure
Examples:
- iShares Physical Gold (SGLN)
- Invesco Physical Gold (SGLP)
- Xtrackers Physical Gold (OXA1)
- HANetf Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold (RMPH)
- WisdomTree Physical Gold (GBSP)
Pros:
✔ Tracks gold price closely
✔ Buy/sell like a share
✔ No need to store gold
Cons:
✘ Annual fees
✘ You don’t personally own the metal
Gold mining shares
Best for: Higher risk / higher reward
Examples:
Barrick Mining (B)
Newmont Corp (NEM)
AngloGold Ashanti (AU)
Pros:
✔ Leverage to gold price
✔ Can pay dividends
✔ Potential for growth beyond gold price
Cons:
✘ Company-specific risks
✘ More volatile than gold
Gold mining ETFs
Best for: Diversified miners exposure
Examples:
VanEck Gold Miners (GDGB)
VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GJGB)
HANetf Gold Miners Screened (ESGP)
L&G Gold Mining (AUCP)
Pros:
✔ Spread risk across many miners
✔ Easy access
✔ Leverage to gold cycle
Cons:
✘ Still equity risk
✘ Can underperform bullion
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